Somali government troops massed in Mogadishu for a planned offensive against al Shabaab, the powerful al Qaeda allied-militia that has been trying to topple the government.
Government and African Union officials say the goal is for the Somali troops, backed by U.S.-trained African Union forces, to carve out a secure area of the capital. That would provide space for the Somali government to function, and the opportunity to win support from a fractious and insecure public, officials say.
The strategy takes a page from U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, where strengthening a weak government has been seen as pivotal in the wars against Islamic militants.
The Somali government was preparing for an intense battle amid reports of Shabaab fighters moving into the city. “We have our troops trained and equipped now, so they are ready to clear the rebels out of the country,” said Somali Security Minister Abdullahi Mohamed Ali.
After nearly two decades of war, the current government barely exists beyond the tiny pocket of the capital it controls. Members of an underpaid Somali force have been known to defect or sell weapons to militants.
The United Nations has warned of increasing civilian casualties. As government troops mobilized, Mogadishu residents packed into cars and buses to flee to makeshift camps outside the city. In the past two weeks, an estimated 15,000 people have been displaced from Mogadishu, according to the U.N., and 85,000 have been displaced across the country since Jan. 1.
A recent statement from the office of the U.N.’s humanitarian coordinator, Mark Bowden, said the figures suggest “all parties”—which would include government and African Union troops—are involved in “indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force against civilians.”
The government has attributed such allegations to insurgent propaganda. Gaffel Nkolokosa, a spokesman for the African Union mission in Somalia, denied any such actions by those troops—a force of around 5,300 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi.
Mogadishu resident Abdiyo Hussein was preparing to leave the city for the sixth time since 2007, to take refuge in a camp. “I’m no longer hopeful of the government or the rebels,” she said. “The rebels execute people meaninglessly, and the government shells civilians. So we are hopeless.”
An estimated 3.2 million people, more than 40% of the population, need emergency humanitarian assistance, according to the nongovernmental Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit.
The crisis has deepened as the U.S. and the U.K., the largest donors of food assistance, gave less than half of their planned contributions last year, according to Kiki Gbeho, head of the U.N.’s office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs.
The U.K.’s suspension was largely because of reports of missing food shipments, while the U.S. wanted assurances that supplies weren’t being diverted to al Shabaab and other militant groups. Mr. Bowden of the U.N. said al Shabaab has asked local U.N. staff to pay fees in regions they control, but said, “I don’t think there’s anything that would constitute diversion,” of the humanitarian assistance.
Al Shabaab has been blamed for a raft of suicide bombings and other attacks targeting Somali officials and African Union troops. The group this month confirmed it was cooperating with al Qaeda insurgents in the region, as U.S. and Somali officials had suspected.
Sheikh Hassan Yaqub, a senior al Shabaab spokesman, said their fighters were “on standby” for the battle. “We have practiced very well, we know the enemy’s tactics and we shall surely seize their small bases. The victory will be for us,” he said.
The Somali government offensive isn’t likely to dislodge al Shabaab, but some analysts say it might weaken the group enough to encourage defections from top commanders and raise tensions among factions.
Analysts say a rift has also emerged between foreign fighters who want to link Somalia to al Qaeda’s global jihad and Somali militants whose goals are largely domestic—to establish an Islamic state in Somalia.
So far, the government has failed to exploit that division, said Rashid Abdi, a Somali analyst in Nairobi for the International Crisis Group, an independent think tank.
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Wall Street Journal
