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Five questions about the Somalia bomb

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Paris, France | AFP | A massive truck bomb in the Somali capital of Mogadishu on Saturday killed at least 276 people and left 300 injured.

Following are five questions about the attack, the bloodiest in the country’s long history of violence and instability.

– What was the target? –

The bomb exploded at a junction in Hodan, a busy commercial district in northwestern Mogadishu that has many shops, hotels and other businesses.

But there was no notable government, military or other strategic target there.

For Matt Bryden, a Somalia specialist with Nairobi-based thinktank Sahan, “it’s not sure” the K5 intersection was the intended target.

Separately, a regional security source, who requested anonymity, speculated the truck may have been prepared for another operation that went wrong. A classic scenario is a two-bomb mission in which a first vehicle destroys the security around a protected target, and a second vehicle drives through the wrecked perimeter before blowing up.

The two sources said the truck bomb also blew up a nearby fuel tanker, which made the toll even greater. AFP did not see the remains of any fuel tanker at the junction, although the place is often used by fuel hawkers.

If the fuel truck was there, “was it pre-positioned or was it just coincidence?”, asked Bryden.

– What was the bomb? –

The security source estimated the bomb at between 500 kilogrammes (1,100 pounds) and two tonnes, which at the top end would be about the same scale as the device used by Al-Qaeda in the 1998 truck bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi that left 213 dead.

Bryden notes that in previous attacks in Mogadishu, bombs have been estimated at between 800 kilos and a tonne — but the damage they inflict was far less than on Saturday, when windows were shattered nearly a kilometre (more than half a mile) away.

Together with reports from the scene, this suggests the bomb was a mix of homemade and military explosives, said Bryden, pointing out that Somalia’s Al-Qaeda-linked group Shabaab “can’t make charges this big without homemade explosives.”

– What about security? –

The blast is a clear setback for the Somali security forces, which failed to “identify this (operation) and disrupt it” and ensure security at key access points in the city, said Bryden.

Somalia’s notorious Shabaab have a long record of being able to bypass checkpoints in Mogadishu, infiltrating the armed forces and moving around disguised in military uniforms.

Preparing and assembling a bomb on this scale is “a pretty complex and relatively long-term operation,” said Bryden.

– Why no claim? –

The two specialists independently agreed that the Shabaab were behind the attack, contending this is the only group in Somalia to have the resources to mount an operation of this size.

They also noted that in the past the jihadists have kept their lips sealed whenever an attack inflicted a civilian toll that triggered intense public anger. Similar silence followed a bomb attack at a hotel in 2009 where students were receiving their diplomas at a ceremony — 23 people died.

– What’s the aftermath? –

The first reaction has been anger. On Sunday, protests in the street highlighted the public’s fury at the Shabaab — although, noted Bryden, discontent may also turn on the government for failing to prevent the blast.

Beyond the public mood, though, the strategic situation is deadlocked.

“The Shabaab has lost some important leaders to raids and airstrikes over the last year. But they are very good at replenishing leadership. This operation demonstrates that they retain this capability to plan and carry out large-scale attacks,” Bryden said.

“They are not losing territory at the moment. There is very little movement on the ground. On the surface at least, what we see is stagnation.”

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Somali News

Comprehensive approach to security in Somalia discussed today in Mogadishu

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Mogadishu, 11 November 2017 – Today the Federal Government of Somalia, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) held a joint meeting to discuss a comprehensive approach to security for the country.

The discussions addressed Somalia’s national priorities, the progress made on the Comprehensive Approach to Security and existing gaps and drew participants from key federal ministries and federal member states, the United Nations, AMISOM and the international partners.

“Maintaining security is not just about offensive action, we remain cognizant that we require a comprehensive approach that has been well articulated by our president, who is keen on engaging our population in good governance, fighting corruption, reconciliation and healing the wounds of the past”, Prime Minister H.E Hassan Ali Khaire said in his opening remarks.

He also noted that a comprehensive approach in dealing with the security situation in Somalia is critical, as the government readies itself to completely neutralize Al-Shabaab militants, in order to restore peace and order in the country.

“The core issue before us is how we can continue to stabilize Somalia and preserve the many gains that have been made”, said Michael Keating, the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia (SRSG), who also noted that the terrorist group remained the main threat to peace and stability in Somalia.

SRSG Keating expressed the need to “protect the political space so that Somalis can continue the difficult business of constructing the state, building peace and resolving a number of challenges they face whether on the socio-economic side, the political side, the constitutional review, creation of jobs, and delivery of services”.

Keating also stressed the need “to develop a strategy led by the Federal Government in conjunction with the African Union; securing populations’ centers, main supply routes, joint operations and a plan for strengthening Somali security forces’ capability; and to make sure that we are all behind that overall strategy”, he added.

The Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for Somalia, Ambassador Francisco Caetano Madeira, emphasized concerted efforts to address the security challenges.

“Once we know the enemy, once we know our capabilities, we know what needs to be done. And once we know what needs to be done, we need resources. We need to sit down together and see how we mobilize these resources”, Ambassador Madeira said.

Madeira also appealed for enhanced information sharing and intelligence capabilities on the terrorists.

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Briefing Room

US airstrike kills ‘several’ al-Shabab militants in Somalia

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The U.S. military said it killed “several militants” while conducting an airstrike in Somalia on Thursday against al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group al Shabab.

The strike targeting al-Shabab occurred at approximately 3 p.m. local time in the Bay Region, about 100 miles west of Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. U.S. forces carried out the operation in coordination with Somalia’s federal government, according to a press release from the United States Africa Command.

Al Shabab, which is based in Somalia and pledged allegiance to al Qaeda in 2012, “is dedicated to providing safe haven for terrorist attacks throughout the world” and “has publicly committed to planning and conducting attacks against the U.S. and our partners in the region,” the press release stated.

“U.S. forces will continue to use all authorized and appropriate measures to protect Americans and to disable terrorist threats,” the press release added.

The operation comes one week after U.S. forces conducted its first airstrikes against ISIS in Somalia. However, the main target of U.S. airstrikes in Somalia is al Shabab.

U.S. forces have conducted well over a dozen airstrikes targeting al Shabab this year since U.S. President Donald Trump signed a directive in March giving the military authorization to conduct offensive counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia against the jihadist group. Previously, the U.S. military had only been able to launch airstrikes against al-Shabab fighters in self-defense situations when African Union or Somali government troops accompanied by American advisers were under attack.

Clan warlords battling for power carved up Somalia following the collapse of a military dictatorship in the early 1990s. After years of interim authority, an internationally backed federal government was installed in 2012. In February, the East African country elected its first president in decades, whose victory offered a ray of hope for residents.

But the federal government has failed to assert central authority over the entire nation which, combined with high youth unemployment, has created an opening for piracy and for armed groups such as al Shabab, whose name means “the youth.”

Al Shabab, which emerged in 2006 from the now-defunct Islamic Courts Union, launched its own insurgency against major cities in Somalia in 2009, seizing the capital and much of southern Somalia until it was pushed out by domestic and international forces around 2012.

Although the group lost control of most cities and towns, al Shabab continues to dominate in many rural areas of southern Somalia and is reportedly becoming increasingly present in the northern region. However, Somalia experts have told ABC News that the group is struggling to recruit new members.

Al Shabab has been blamed for carrying out the deadliest single attack in Somalia’s history last month, though there was no official claim of responsibility. The massive truck bombing in the capital left more than 350 people dead and hundreds of others wounded. The Oct. 14 attack could be an indication of the power the extremist group still wields over the Horn of Africa nation.

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Puntland

Islamic State thriving in Somalia: UN report

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An Islamic State faction in Somalia has grown significantly over the past year, carrying out attacks in Puntland and receiving some funding from Syria and Iraq, a report by UN sanctions monitors said Friday.

The faction loyal to Sheikh Abdulqader Mumin was targeted by US drone strikes last week in the first US operation targeting IS in the Horn of Africa, US Africa Command said.

In the report, the UN monitoring group for Somalia said the IS faction, which was estimated in 2016 “to number not more than a few dozen, has grown significantly in strength” and may “consist of as many as 200 fighters.”

Phone records from Mumin showed he was in contact with an IS operative in Yemen who acts as an intermediary with senior IS leaders in Iraq and Syria “though the exact nature of this contact is unclear,” said the report.

Former members of the faction who defected in December said the Mumin group received orders as well as financing from Iraq and Syria, the report said.

The group captured the town of Qandala in Puntland’s Bari region in October 2016, declaring it the seat of the Islamic Caliphate in Somalia before being pushed out two months later by Puntland forces backed by US military advisers.

In February, IS gunmen stormed a hotel in Bosaso, the economic capital of Puntland, and in May the faction carried out its first suicide attack at a police checkpoint near Bosaso, killing five people.

“The group showed signs of increasing tactical capabilities during its first attack target a hotel,” said the UN monitors.

– Haven for foreign fighters –

The UN report raised concerns that the Bari region could become a potential haven for foreign IS fighters as the extremists are driven out of their strongholds in Syria and Iraq.

The IS group in Somalia “presents more natural appeal to foreign terrorist fighters than Al-Shabaab,” whose aim is to establish a state government by Islamic law, it added.

Al-Shabaab, another Islamist militant group, is affiliated with IS’s global rival Al-Qaeda.

The Bari region has attracted a limited number of foreign fighters including Sudanese national Abu Faris who is on the US terror list for recruiting foreign fighters for Al-Shabaab.

While the faction is expanding, its fighters appear to be poorly paid or not paid at all.

Unmarried fighters receive no salary, while married militants receive $50 per month plus $10-$20 per child, depending on the age.

The report estimated that the salary payments were between $3,000 and $9,000 per month, allowing IS leaders “to fund its insurgency on a limited budget”.

UN monitors said the faction will likely face frequent defections from poorly paid fighters, a problem that also affects Al-Shabaab.

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