Already facing a storm of political and economic challenges ahead of next year’s general elections, Kenya is now fighting a potentially protracted war against Islamist rebels in Somalia and risks further attacks on its soil.

Here are some of the risk factors ahead:

SOMALIA

A series of kidnappings on Kenyan soil and persistent attacks on its security forces along the Somali border finally pushed Kenya to send troops across the frontier to fight the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab rebel group.

Kenyan forces pushed quickly into Somalia, but have yet to face a major showdown with al Shabaab and heavy rains have slowed the advance. Kenyan troops have been ambushed once and one soldier was killed in a firefight.

Since the incursion there have been two grenade attacks in the capital Nairobi and two in the north, one an ambush and the other an improvised explosive device, killing a total of five civilians and wounding 35 people.

So far, the coalition government has presented a united front supporting the action, although there was a brief difference of opinion over whether Kenya should negotiate with the rebels. That glitch has since been ironed out.

What to watch:

– Speed of advance. Kenya says the mission is open-ended and it will stay until al Shabaab’s network is dismantled. But this could take time and may require additional budget support. But if there is a quick win, some politicians, and outgoing President Mwai Kibaki, could get a boost.

– Civilian casualties. While there is some doubt over what happened, at least 5 people were killed in a refugee camp in Somalia during a Kenyan air strike last month. If the conflict leads to major Somali civilian casualties, that could rally support for the rebels at a time when they are on the back foot.

– Kenyan military deaths. Some analysts have questioned the wisdom of an incursion into Somalia since the United States and Ethiopia ended up leaving without achieving their goals. If there are significant Kenyan casualties, current widespread support for the mission could weaken.

– More attacks in Kenya. The two grenade attacks in the capital Nairobi have spooked residents and led to beefed up security. If the incursion drags, and more Kenyans are killed and wounded in attacks at home, it may create doubts as to the wisdom of the incursion. A string of attacks may also deter tourists and their valuable hard currency from visiting.

– Reprisals in Kenya. Although the man convicted of the grenade attacks last month was Kenyan Muslim convert and al Shabaab member, there is a large Somali and Kenyan-Somali population in the country that could be antagonised, especially if the campaign does not go as smoothly as hoped.

ELECTION DATE

Kenya’s political class scrambled to beat a one-year deadline for the passing of dozens of crucial bills central to the new constitution. But analysts say a huge amount of work remains to make the new charter a reality on the ground, such as defining the boundaries for new electoral constituencies.

But probably the most crucial outstanding constitutional issue is when the next election will be held.

The new constitution states the poll should be on August 14, 2012 but the cabinet has proposed a four month delay to December. A bill with amendments to enshrine the December date for the 2012 elections is due to be tabled this week.

The proposal has been divisive, getting the backing of many lawmakers but dismissed by the commission for implementation of the constitution as well as pro-constitution groups.

An opinion poll last month also showed that 53 percent of Kenyans want an August election and 38 percent a December one.

The constitution aims to trim presidential powers and curb the corruption, political patronage, land-grabbing and tribalism that have plagued Kenya since independence.

What to watch:

– Will parliament agree on an election date or will the Supreme Court step in and make a ruling?

– If the election is due in August, will that leave enough time to prepare the new constituencies and other changes brought in by the new constitution?

ICC DECISION

The confirmation of charges hearings against six post-election violence suspects at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague passed without major incident at home. Now, Kenya is on tenterhooks for the judges’ decision.

The ICC said it will announce the rulings on the two cases, each involving three Kenyans, on the same day. This was seen as a wise move to mitigate potentially angry reactions along tribal lines from rulings a few weeks apart.

The two cases a split chiefly between an ethnic Kikuyu and Kalenjin camp. They were the groups behind much of the violence that killed about 1,300 people following the disputed election.

The judges must rule within 60 days of the final written submissions following the confirmation hearings. They can drop the charges, request the prosecutor to submit more evidence, or order some or all of the suspects to stand trial.

ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo in December named three government ministers, the cabinet secretary and a former police chief as key suspects behind the violence that shook Kenya after elections in December 2007.

The stakes are high. Two of the suspects, former cabinet minister William Ruto and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya’s founding father Jomo Kenyatta, plan to run in next year’s election. Analysts say their chances would be seriously damaged by a trial.

If the cases are thrown out, the potential presidential candidates could get a boost. If both Ruto and Kenyatta are indicted, the next step would be to see if they still run, and whether Kenya will hand them over to The Hague.

If one case continues and the other is rejected, there could be reprisals between the rival ethnic groups.

What to watch:

– Will any of the suspects be indicted?

– The government’s stance is that it will cooperate fully with the ICC. Will this continue to be the case if the top suspects have to face trial?

– Failure to cooperate with the ICC would concern foreign investors and Western governments who want Kenya to combat impunity and rein in politicians who fan tribal animosities.

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