U.S. cables made public by WikiLeaks show the United States warned Kenya two years ago not to launch an offensive in southern Somalia against al-Qaida-allied al-Shabab rebels, but a U.S. official also offered to check on the “feasibility” of a U.S. review of the plans.

Kenya went ahead with an invasion a month ago, saying it was a response to a recent series of kidnappings near the border between the two countries. But the existence of the cables undercuts Kenya’s claim that the move had not been long planned.

The cables paint a contradictory picture of whether the United States encouraged Kenya’s invasion of its neighbor.
Taken as a whole, they seem to lend credence to Washington’s claims that it had neither encouraged nor supported the invasion.

But one cable depicts a senior U.S. official asking Kenya’s foreign minister if Kenyan troops shouldn’t consider trying to take Kismayo, the al-Shabab stronghold seaport, on their own or with the help of Somali militias, and promising the review of the plans by an American team. The tactics described in that cable match the plan Kenya appears to be trying to execute.

The Kenyan offensive appears to have stalled one month in. The military has cited heavy rains and mud for slowing its movements, but Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, says the military is hesitating to proceed into al-Shabab territory because the Islamist group is refusing to engage the Kenyan troops openly.

Since Kenya’s invasion last month, U.S. officials have denied that the U.S. was involved in planning Kenya’s offensive or was providing assistance – a position that appears to be backed by the deep skepticism the cables show U.S. officials had for the plan.

“I don’t think it points to an American plot,” said Roger Middleton, an analyst in London for Chatham House, Britain’s premier foreign policy think tank. “For me, the cables make the case a bit stronger that Kenya went on this on its own.”

But Middleton also said that the United States, Britain and France now have a “begrudging acceptance” of the invasion and are likely to be providing intelligence and other covert forms of support now that the operation is under way.

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McClatchy Newspaper

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