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Opinion

The Influence of Egypt and Ethiopia on Somalia and Somalis

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Mohamed Mohamud “Hajibeeso” MPA

The regional powers seeking influence and control over Somalia are part of a framework that is worrying Somalis about some foreign governments’ role in Somalia’s instability. In some ways, the competition over Somalia is due to economic interests. The presidents of Somalia and Egypt had discussed the development of Egypt Air in the country where direct flights between Mogadishu and Cairo are planned (Horn Observer, 2017). The Ethiopians would fear the Somali administration that is influenced by Egypt because the shift in regional power would focus on concentrating resources between Egypt and Somalia. This could lead to regional issues between Egypt and Somalia on one side, and Ethiopia on the other.

The recent arrest of a suspected ONLF member was followed by the release of the prisoner to the Ethiopian government. Therefore, the suspect’s arrest by the Galmudug regional police was a recognition that Al Shabaab and other rebel forces are operating or seek to operate in Somalia due to Egyptian influence in the country.

Based on the sources of information, the arrest was timely but largely coincidental as the arrest occurred two weeks prior to the transfer to the interim capital of the Somalia state of Galmudug (Horn Observer). The detention center housing of the ONLF rebel by the Somali National Intelligence Agency in Mogadishu seemed to be a time lapse to prepare for the deal with Ethiopia to facilitate the transfer. The government of Ethiopia considers the ONLF to be a terror group and therefore was agreeing to receive a member of this group in exchange for a Somali prisoner. Overall, the Somali Intelligence Agency had a large role in leading to the detention of Abdihakin Sheikh Muse by facilitating the detention holding after the arrest.

The presence of Egypt in Somalia is of concern for Ethiopia government in other ways. The government of Ethiopia and the government of Egypt are in contention over the Nile River. This is because the government of Ethiopia had built a damn on the Blue Nile, which is in opposition to the stance by the Egyptian government. The Egyptian government believes Ethiopia does not have the right of way or ownership of the Nile to build the dam. Ethiopia built the dam to produce electricity. The influence of Egypt in Somalia could lead to further regional issues regarding regional resources of water, such as with the Nile River. The concern is that Somalia will begin to favor the stances of Egypt over Ethiopia and therefore isolate Ethiopia with regard to usage of regional resources.

Th Somali president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s main position for Somalia is to identify and remain directed toward providing security, corruption and reconciliation (Africa News, 2017). Additionally, Famajo feels the Somalis are no longer divided and need security. This would indicate that increased security in Somalia would identify the rebel groups operating in the country. The arrest would have come from the increased security that was identified by government as part of the effort of the security efforts.

The repercussions of the arrest seemingly would benefit Al Shabaab as there would be less likelihood of Al Shabaab surrendering in Somalia. By handing over prisoners to the government of Ethiopia, the rebel groups would identify Somalia government as cooperating with Ethiopia in cross border matters. This could allow Al Shabaab to continue operating in Somalia and not considering surrender or negotiation as was done previously in the past. This could also lead toward further isolation of Egypt and Somalia from Ethiopia if these groups continue to operate in Somalia and are not surrendering or not leaving the country. The identification of these groups by the government of Ethiopia will continue to lead to imprisonment of group members operating in Somalia.

The governments of Egypt and Ethiopia will likely continue pursuing opposite agendas on regional issues, especially Somalia. It is vitally important that the Somali Federal Government a strong neutral position and implements national decisions based on the best Somali strategic interests. Otherwise, Somalia will continue facing push-and-pull foreign policy forces that ensure the country continues making national decisions protecting foreign interest, and at the expense of Somalia’s own national interests and well-being.

References

Africa News. (2017). [Live] Horn of Africa Leaders Join Somalia at President Farmajo’s Investiture. Retrieved from http://www.africanews.com/2017/02/22/live-horn-of-africa-leaders-join-somalia-at-president-farmajo-s-investiture//

Horn Observer. (2017). Somalia Hands Over ONLF Rebel Commander to Ethiopia. Retrieved from http://hornobserver.com/articles/533/Somalia-President-on-a-2-day-Official-Visit-to-Egypt

Horn Observer. (2017). Somalia President on a 2-day Official Visit to Egypt. Retrieved from http://hornobserver.com/articles/533/Somalia-President-on-a-2-day-Official-Visit-to-Egypt

Opinion

Turkey’s foray into Somalia is a huge success, but there are risks

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Brendon J. Cannon is an Assistant Professor of International Security, Department of Humanities & Social Science at Khalifa University of Science & Technology (Abu Dhabi, UAE).

THE CONVERSATION –Turkey’s presence in Somalia certainly embodies one of the most interesting regional geopolitical developments in the past decade. It also represents one of the most misunderstood and confusing. Why did Turkey choose Somalia? And, after its initial humanitarian intervention in 2011, what internal and external forces have shaped and expanded that involvement? Furthermore, what explains Turkey’s reported triumphs?

Some have pointed to a shared history and a common Sunni Muslim heritage. This is questionable, at best, and alone cannot explain Turkey’s engagement with Somalia – let alone the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Others have noted Turkey’s economic clout and its status as a mid-sized country interested in trade rather than extracting resources.

Genuine humanitarian concerns have also, at least initially, driven Turkey’s engagement as well as the prospect of economic gain. Scholar Federico Donelli notes its approach to Somalia

“has made Turkey a regional actor different from the traditional western powers, as well as from the emerging non-western ones.”

Turkey’s approach in Somalia has been largely welcomed inside and outside the African nation. However, a cautionary note is required. Allegations of corruption and bribery have surfaced. Turkey’s recent opening of a military training base in Mogadishu to train the Somali National Army has also raised eyebrows across the wider Horn of Africa region.

Keys to success
Ankara has an understandable and deep seated desire for international recognition as an emerging power and G20 member state. Its status in Somalia is part humanitarian and part financial, but is at its heart about influence and prestige.

Turkish money and aid – delivered directly to key stakeholders in the Somali Federal Government – ingratiated Turkey with local power brokers and provided Ankara with access and power in Mogadishu. What soon followed is Turkish control and management of Somalia’s most lucrative assets, the airport and seaport.

Parallel to these were unilateral rebuilding efforts, offers of scholarships, renovations of hospitals, and the hosting of international conferences about Somalia. These have largely contributed positively to Somalia’s development and yielded the international acclaim and diplomatic clout craved by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his coterie.

For some parties inside and outside Somalia, Turkey is now viewed as indispensable to Somalia. The keys to Turkey’s reported success in Somalia – where so many other established powers have failed before – may revolve around four critical factors.

The first is approach. Most interventions in Somalia have been multilateral affairs by international and regional actors, such as the UN. Turkey’s approach, in contrast, has been largely unilateral and highly coordinated by the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency. In this way, the efforts of business, government and humanitarian staff either do not overlap or do so effectively.

Second is novelty. Turkey’s Ottoman past and Muslim identity have been raised as major variables driving Turkey’s engagement with Somalia. But these assertions ignore or minimise one of its key strengths as a rising power: its distinct lack of a colonial past that devastated so much of the continent.

This approach is not only novel; it also represents Turkey’s first meaningful engagement with the continent. This contrasts sharply with that of the US, France, Russia and China, among others, which have a colonial or Cold War baggage.

The third factor is risk. Somalia has been the scene of thousands of capacity building and self-help experiments funded by a plethora of international organisations and states. Yet it is precisely where these efforts have failed that Turkey has found its niche.

This required a big appetite for risk. Naturally, as the risks rise the potential for significant rewards does too. The economic rationale for risk among Turkish businesses is particularly high, given experiences in difficult environments such as Iraq and Libya. This has contributed to sensible, if risky actions in Somalia.

Fourth is soft power. Turkey has deployed an array of soft power approaches. These include diplomatic support for Somalia and direct flights on the Turkish national airline from Mogadishu to Istanbul. These pragmatic approaches have also led Turkish businesses to reap major financial rewards and lucrative contracts.

Turkey’s interest has shifted from being primarily humanitarian to one that also takes into account the political and security aspects of the country. Doing so, as stated in the Becoming Global Actor: The Turkish Agenda for the Global South has made the country

“a hybrid non-traditional actor because it combines the traditional political-stability perspective of western powers with the economic-trade perspective of emerging ones.”

It also has broken with the traditional development model for Somalia that has characterised the past three decades.

Hybrid approach
Turkey’s hybrid approach may yet lead to mission creep and draw the country into Somalia’s infamous clan politics. Its increasing role could also put it on a collision course with other states, regionally and internationally.

However, its actions have arguably improved the situation in Somalia over the past six years. This is because Ankara has actually attempted to assuage rather than solve Somalia’s long-standing problems outright. Investment is largely driven by profits and assistance is targeted, coordinated and based on needs.

These interventions rarely come with the types of strings attached that characterise other efforts seeking to restructure Somalia. This has been welcomed by many Somalis for whom requirements for political reform or the creation of accountability mechanisms ring hollow.

Brendon J. Cannon, Assistant Professor of International Security, Department of Humanities and Social Science, Khalifa University

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Opinion

Islamic Hijab Is More Than Sexuality

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NIMCO ALI

Mohamed Ibrahim
Chairman of London Somali Youth Forum, a London based, UK, Social Activist

In reference to the article published on the Evening Standard on 24 January 2016 and written by Nimco Ali who claimed that the Hijab sexualises little girls, I take the view this article is misleading and intended to cause further confusion on a subject, which the writer does not fully have knowledge of.

I respect and support the FGM campaign and the pursuit of equal rights for women and girls everywhere. However, it seems Nimco Ali is now moving the goal post to Hijab wearing young girls. This, I believe, is a distorted view that serves no purpose other than to confuse the public discourse. Hijab, Kippah and the Turban are personnel choice for parents intended to serve a religious purpose for modesty, social protection and religious entity. This is a religious freedom of choice for parents as they are the parental guardians for our children. It is my view the writer is right to start a discussion on the issue. However, the writer fails to understand the Hijab serves many other purposes other than modesty. It is a form of religious identity for our Muslim girls intended to encourage them about their values. It is my view the writer is attacking a value she has missed out on at young age and I would encourage her to seek further knowledge on the subject before throwing extreme form of liberalism on our faces.

I would like to encourage the mainstream media to seek people of knowledge on the subject matter other than channelling their own comforting views through people who clearly do not know what they are talking about. It is becoming a common trend in the media to have Muslims being represented by people who are themselves in need of rehabilitation, distorting the facts and confusing the wider public for personnel interests or beliefs. It is a comforting view for right-wing audience, but serves no purpose for community cohesion,mutual understanding and knowledge.

These writers or activists can express their own opinions. However, when their glass is half full, they can hardly contribute to progress on a subject matter they have no knowledge of. It is also ironic to have a freedom fighter for women/girls seeking to limit the religious freedoms of our parents and children. The writer’s views have no logic of reasoning, coherence and knowledge of this subject matter.

Mohamed Ibrahim

Chairman of London Somali Youth Forum, a London based, UK, Social Activist
Email: Mohamedlsyf@gmail.com
@Mi_shiine (Twitter) 

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KENYA

Bring Kenyan troops home from Somalia

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On January 15, 2016, Kenyans reacted with anger and horror at the news that Al-Shabaab militants had attacked Kenyan troops at a military outpost in El Adde, southern Somalia.

The attackers claimed to have killed dozens of soldiers and captured scores of others, including their commander. To date, the Kenyan military has not released details of the attack, although some reports put the death toll at 100.

The El Adde attack raised serious questions about Kenya’s efforts in Somalia. Why is the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) still in Somalia? What are they trying to accomplish? Why was the outpost vulnerable? When will the troops come home?

The KDF first entered Somalia in 2011 on “Operation Linda Nchi”, aimed at securing the northeastern border with the Horn of Africa nation following a series of attacks on tourists and aid workers.

Until El Adde, things were going well for Kenya, with little violence. The KDF captured Kismayu port, a source of income for Al-Shabaab from charcoal trade and sugar smuggling into Kenya. Ironically, a United Nations report said the KDF was also involved in the illicit trade.

POLITICAL INFIGHTING

But the cost of Kenyan and Amisom efforts is staggering, with a heavy toll of African troops and Somali civilians. Although Amisom has kept a tight lid on its casualties, more than 4,000 soldiers are said to have been killed and thousands more wounded, making it the deadliest peacekeeping mission.

Due to lack of political progress on the ground, even the United States’ counter-terrorism efforts, billions of dollars in foreign aid and 28,000 AU soldiers from 11 countries are unable to impose order in Somalia. The Mogadishu central government is mired in political infighting over the spoils of foreign aid, factions and corruption.

The president of Somalia is holed up in a hilltop palace in the capital city — where a tenuous government exists that is unable to protect its people, administer justice and deliver basic services.

Al-Shabaab also exploits discontent among marginalised clans in the Shabelle River valley, who believe the US-trained, Al-Shabaab-infested, corrupt, one-clan-dominated Somali National Army (SNA) is using the fight against the Al-Shabaab to grab their fertile land. Although they don’t share the militants’ extremist ideology, they see them as defending their lands from State-backed clan militias.

CLAN MILITIA

But southern Somalia’s problems are not limited to Al-Shabaab. There is also small arms in the hands of clan militias and the second-generation of merchants of corruption and violence.

Moreover, the heavy-handed foreign meddling, including self-interested neighbours, impedes creation of a functioning, stable government. In fact, the 2006 US-backed Ethiopian incursion into southern Somalia midwifed the Al-Shabaab.

Then-President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga may have started the Somalia military mission on the wrong foot but President Uhuru Kenyatta has the opportunity to end it well. After all the Kenyan troops are accounted for, he should withdraw the KDF from Somalia in an orderly manner.

ATTACKS

The policy on Somalia is neither protecting the homeland nor serving Kenya’s interest. In fact, it has made border counties more vulnerable to attacks.

There is no compelling reason worth risking more Kenyan lives or treasure in Somalia’s clan-driven terrorism or dictating the political outcomes in the war-torn neighbouring country. It’s time to bring Kenyan troops home and let the Somali fight for their own country and destiny.

Mr Mohamed is founder and editor, Gubanmedia.com, a 24/7 online magazine of news analysis and commentary on the greater Horn of Africa region. aliadm18@gmail.com.

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