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Simmering Tension Between Islamic School, Government Led to Protests in Eritrea

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Unusual acts of defiance against government demands led to protests last week in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, according to experts who study the region.

The rare protests were the culmination of nearly two years of back-and-forth between the Ministry of Education and leaders of the Diaa Islamic School of Asmara, who defied government orders aimed at removing religion from their curricula. An elderly school board member, Hajji Muasa Mohamed Nur, voiced the school’s resistance in a widely shared video posted on YouTube. “We are not going to change anything,” Nur said as the crowd applauded.

Nur was arrested, and the government threatened to take over the school, sending officials to collect the keys, several opposition groups said. That’s when a crowd descended on the school grounds and marched toward the Ministry of Education to protest the closing, according to state-owned media shabait.com.

Vacuum of information

Videos of frightened crowds dispersing as gunshots ring out have circulated on social media since last week. But the time and place of the videos have not been verified, and no injuries or deaths are depicted.

The government says reports of deaths and violence are part of a pattern of sensationalized stories that dominate news coverage of Eritrea.

“Scoop-oriented media outlets keep churning out false ‘casualty figures’ peddled by Eritrea’s detractors without minimum verification,” Yemane Gebremeskel, the minister of information, posted on Twitter. He said a small demonstration by one school in Asmara dispersed without any casualties.

But press freedom in Eritrea ranks among the lowest in the world, and non-governmental organizations can’t operate independently in the country.

Felix Horne, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch who focuses on the Horn of Africa, said those restrictions prevent verification and block credible information. In this case, that information could support the government’s side of the story.

Instead, opposition groups have seized the moment to give their version of events, Horne said. “It’s a very self-defeating strategy in our view, if the government has nothing to hide.”

Social media has added to the confusion, but it’s also enabled some information to leak out, including the clip of Nur. “That the government can suppress, but not completely black out news, I think, emboldens people and encourages people to know that they’re not alone,” said Saleh Younis, the editor of Awate.com, an Eritrean news website that is opposed to the government and its policies.

Details of last week’s protests and the government reaction also remain murky because people are scared of reprisals, Younis said. “Even if you know information, you’re hesitant to disclose it because we have a police state in Eritrea,” he said.

Much of the government’s response happens out of the spotlight. According to Younis, police have rounded up hundreds of people at night, and entire areas have been cordoned off.

Years of pressure

The Diaa Islamic School of Asmara was founded in 1968. The school has taught students from kindergarten to high school, and according to Younis has been well regarded. Nearly 3,000 students attend Diaa.

But for nearly two years, the government has had a litany of requests: Girls in high school should not wear headscarves, the school should remain open on Fridays, secondary classes should no longer be segregated by gender and no classes should focus on Islamic teachings, according to an alum.

School leaders were willing to compromise on some points, for example, staying open on Fridays. The government pressed to implement all of the changes, but school leaders refused. “The whole core of the school is being undermined,” Younis said.

Other schools have changed their practices and curricula in the government drive to secularize education, and some have closed, but Diaa appears unique in its resistance.

The key difference, said Semhar Habtezion, a member of the Eritrean Diaspora, was Nur. “He was fearless, and he was, in effect, saying we cannot continue fearing this government. This is our school, and we will do whatever it takes to fight back.”

When the government attempted to take over the school it crossed a red line that caused people to rise up and say “No,” Younis said.

From the government’s perspective, intervening in the school’s affairs was necessary to protect its secular national curriculum. Writing on the Ministry of Information’s website, Mella Ghebremedhin said, “Similar… actions have recently been taken with both Catholic and Orthodox schools.”

Despite last week’s unrest, the Diaa school remains open. VOA’s stringer in Asmara visited the day after the protests and confirmed to VOA Tigrigna that classes had resumed and students were outside playing sports. He also said by phone on Friday that ninth and 11th-grade students at the Catholic Cathedral school had been ordered to begin attending public schools near their neighborhoods.

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Africa

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma resigns

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South Africa’s embattled President Jacob Zuma has resigned his office with immediate effect.

He made the announcement in a televised address to the nation on Wednesday evening.

Earlier, Mr Zuma’s governing ANC party told him to resign or face a vote of no confidence in parliament on Thursday.

The 75-year-old has been under increasing pressure to give way to Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC’s new leader.

Mr Zuma faces numerous allegations of corruption.

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South Africa’s ANC gives Zuma 48 hours to quit, state broadcaster says

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PRETORIA/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) gave President Jacob Zuma 48 hours to resign as head of state on Monday after an eight-hour meeting of the party’s top leadership, the SABC state broadcaster said.

Party leader Cyril Ramaphosa’s motorcade left a marathon ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting at 10:30 p.m. (2030 GMT) for Zuma’s residence near the Union Buildings in Pretoria to deliver the message in person, the SABC said, citing sources.

His motorcade returned an hour later to the venue of the ANC meeting debating Zuma’s fate.

The rand ZAR=D3, which has tended to strengthen on signs Zuma could step down before his second term ends next year, extended its gains to 0.7 percent to the dollar on expectations Zuma was on his way out.

ANC officials and Zuma’s spokesman could not be reached to comment.

Since Ramaphosa was elected party leader in December, Zuma has faced mounting calls from his party to end his scandal-plagued second term a year early.

The NEC meeting in a Pretoria hotel had all the ingredients for a showdown between Zuma stalwarts and those backing a swift transfer of power to Ramaphosa, the deputy state president.

Ramaphosa, 65, says he has held direct talks with Zuma over a transfer of power, and said on Sunday the meeting of the party’s executive committee would be aiming on Monday to “finalize” the situation.

The party executive has the authority to order Zuma to step down as head of state, although there is domestic media speculation that he might yet refuse.

Zuma survived calls last year from within the NEC for him to quit.[L8N1IU0QO] But analysts say there is greater support for him to step down now.

His tenure as president officially runs until mid-2019 and he has not said publicly whether he will step down voluntarily.

The president is also facing a no-confidence motion in parliament set for Feb. 22, but has survived several similar attempts to oust him in the past.

His entire Cabinet would have to step down if the motion of no-confidence against him was successful.

Since becoming president in 2009, Zuma has been dogged by scandal. He is fighting the reinstatement of 783 counts of corruption over a 30 billion-rand (now $2.5 billion) government arms deal arranged in the late 1990s when he was deputy president.

Some within the ANC and the opposition say the Gupta family, friends of Zuma, have used their links with the president to win state contracts and influence Cabinet appointments. The Guptas and Zuma have denied any wrongdoing.

India’s Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS), which counts the Guptas as clients, has announced plans to exit South Africa, the central bank said on Monday.

Ramaphosa has put the focus on rooting out corruption and revitalizing economic growth since defeating Zuma’s preferred successor, Zuma’s ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, in the ANC leadership race.

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Base race in the Horn of Africa

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The Interpreter — A race is underway between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey to build naval and military bases right across the Horn of Africa. This threatens to change the naval balance in the north-west Indian Ocean. But it may also presage the beginnings of a new strategic order in this complex and multipolar region where a host of major and middle powers jostle for influence and position.

The strategic order in the Indian Ocean is changing fast. In the last few years we have seen major powers, such as China and India, building new bases in the western Indian Ocean. But we are now witnessing several Middle Eastern players building their own areas of influence. This is happening in the Horn of Africa, but is likely to spread further into the Indian Ocean.

Base race in the Horn of Africa
Saudi Arabia has recently finalised a deal to establish a naval base in Djibouti. Its UAE ally has just built major naval and air facilities at Assab in nearby Eritrea. The UAE also runs a military training centre in Mogadishu in Somalia, and is rumoured to be seeking access to port and air facilities at Berbera in the breakaway province of Somaliland.

In recent weeks, Turkey signed a deal with Sudan to rebuild the old Ottoman-era port of Suakin on the Red Sea, which will reportedly include naval facilities. The port last hit the international spotlight in 1883 when British (and Australian) forces under Kitchener used it as a base to pursue the “Mad” Mahdi. A Turkish naval base at Suakin would upset the military balance on the Red Sea, potentially setting off a naval arms race with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This is on top of Turkey’s existing military facilities at Qatar (where some 3000 troops are now stationed) and Mogadishu.

Indeed, hosting foreign military bases has become a bit of a regional specialty. Djibouti, which sits on the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb (the maritime choke point between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal), has made virtue of its geography by creating a successful business model out of hosting foreign military bases. It now hosts naval and military forces from France, the US, Japan, Italy, China, and the Saudis, among other countries.
The immediate imperative behind these moves in the Horn of Africa is the growing rivalry between the two new Middle Eastern blocs: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt on one side; and Turkey, Iran, and Qatar on the other. A proxy conflict between these rival blocs in Yemen has a strong naval element, with the Houthi rebels being supplied by sea. The naval blockade of Yemen and support of government forces give the Emirate and Saudi navies good reasons to establish bases nearby.

But the implications of these developments go far beyond the Horn of Africa. This base race is symptomatic of bigger strategic aspirations of several “non-traditional” middle powers in the Indian Ocean region.

Turkey’s long-forgotten glories
Turkey has not been seen in the Indian Ocean since the time of Lawrence of Arabia, more than a century ago. But the country is undergoing a “global reawakening” that includes a national remembrance of the glories of the Ottoman Empire. In their heyday, the Ottomans exerted influence right across the Islamic world, through Africa and in the northern Indian Ocean. The Ottomans even boasted a protectorate in Aceh, in present-day Indonesia.

This history is now being disinterred. No doubt we will soon be reminded of the exploits of several long-forgotten Ottomans’ naval expeditions in the Indian Ocean to the Strait of Malacca and beyond.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ambitions, which some call “neo-Ottoman”, across the region. Turkey is already a security player in the eastern Indian Ocean. In September 2017, Turkey was the first country to deliver aid to the Rohingyas in Myanmar and in Bangladesh during the latest bout of ethnic cleansing by the Myanmar regime.

The Emirates spreads its wings
The Emirates, a regional rival of Turkey, is also spreading its wings. The Emirates has long had aspirations in the Indian Ocean, far beyond the Yemen conflict. The UAE has given considerable financial and political support to small island states, such as Comoros, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, and Comoros (which are Muslim-majority or have significant Muslim populations), and it is a large investor in East Africa.

The UAE is also showcasing a broader political role in the Indian Ocean, which will include taking the chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, the Indian Ocean’s pan-regional political grouping, from 2019.

The UAE should be expected to be a significant Indian Ocean player in the years ahead, as strategic competition grows in East Africa and nearby islands.

Middle power punch in the Indian Ocean
The new base race in the Horn of Africa underlines doubts over Washington’s commitment to the region. The shale oil revolution has put the US on a path to becoming the world’s biggest oil net exporter within the next decade, meaning that the Persian Gulf may become less of a strategic imperative for it.

Although US defence forces remain in the region (including the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain), there are doubts over US staying power. This, of course, has only been amplified by the antics of the Trump administration. Regional players seem to be positioning themselves for what they see as an inevitable drawdown in US forces.

Just as importantly, the base race by “new” middle powers demonstrates just how multipolar and complex the Indian Ocean is likely to become. For countries such as Australia, the Indian Ocean will not only involve working with major powers such as the US, India, and China, or allies such as France and Japan. It seems that there will be a host of other players, each with their own agendas and alignments.

Australia has long experience working within international coalitions, which in recent years has included commanding broad naval coalitions in the western Indian Ocean. That may be the new order of the day in the Indian Ocean.

David Brewster’s latest book is India and China at Sea: Competition for Naval Dominance in the Indian Ocean. The essays in the volume, by noted strategic analysts from across the world, seek to better understand Indian and Chinese perspectives about their roles in the Indian Ocean and their evolving naval strategies towards each other.

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