The book “Black Hawk Down†and the subsequent movie did a good job describing the U.S. debacle in Somalia in 1993. The quick retreat of U.S. troops after this incident led Osama Bin Laden to describe the U.S. as a paper tiger that could not bear losses. Now sixteen years later, Somalia is in a worse shape than it was then and now about to fall into the hands of Al Qaeda (AQ) allies. Unfortunately at this point the international community is nowhere to be seen.
The latest assault from the main insurgent group, the Islamist al-Shabab (“The Youngstersâ€), seconded by the Islamic Party, started in full force against the Somali government, known as the Transition Federal Government (TFG) on May 7. The Shababs are leading a cruel guerilla war, inspired by Iraqi methods, against the TFG. Indeed, bombs hidden on the side of the road explode when TFG convoys drive by, grenades are thrown at police patrols. The Shababs are everywhere and nowhere, the attacks occur in every neighborhood of Mogadishu and the northern part of town is almost off-limits to the TFG forces.
The situation has quickly deteriorated in the past weeks: in just the span of three days, al- Shabab succeeded in killing the Mogadishu chief of police, the Security minister in a spectacular and bloody suicide attack and a TFG MP. Since the start of this latest offensive, 300 people have been killed and tens of thousands of people have fled Mogadishu. In light of this, the TFG president, Sheikh Sharif declared a state of emergency and authorities called for neighboring countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti and Yemen) to come to the rescue. At this point, the two most likely countries that could intervene are Ethiopia and Kenya but both would not act without a very clear international mandate. And for the time being the U.N. has been totally absent.
But time is of the essence and the TFG is not very much in control, to say the least. The government is holed up in a compound, called “Villa Somaliaâ€, in the hills of Mogadishu, surrounded for protection by 4,300 soldiers from the African Union. Without them the TFG would have likely already fallen.
What are the options at this point to restore security and order in this crucial country of the Horn of Africa?
First and foremost, even though Somalis are not behind the al-Shababs because of their mostly international jihadist agenda, they do not have much respect for the TFG. In fact, the TFG suffers from its own incapacity to restore some kind of security and having made compromises such as introducing Sharia law in the country. On top of the nationalistic and religious aspect, the clannishness makes the situation more complicated even for Somalis themselves; indeed, behind most political rivalry is a clan issue.
Source: Counterterrorismblog
By Olivier Guitta
